2023 College Lacrosse Bracketology Primer: What you need to know

This is March.

Which means the start of March Madness and the beginning of the end of winter sports seasons. As for lacrosse, we're nearly at the halfway point of the season. It's felt quick, as it always seems to be.

Around this time last year was when I dropped my first Bracketology post. We had an idea of what teams were in the mix, but the seeding was still a mess. Princeton, who lost to undefeated Maryland, had the top RPI and SOS. We have something similar to that this year which we'll get to later. But it's a long way of saying there won't be a bracket prediction at the end of this post.

Instead, this will serve as a primer on what to know, how things work, and much more. It might be a refresher to most but it might be a crash course for others.

How many teams make the NCAA Tournament?

This year, 17 teams will end up making the NCAA Tournament. That's 1 fewer than last year.

How many automatic qualifiers and at-large bids?

Nine conferences have automatic qualifying bids. All of these conferences have at least six members that sponsor men's lacrosse. They are:

• America East

• ASUN

• Atlantic 10

• Big East

• Big Ten

• CAA

• Ivy League

• MAAC

• Patriot League

The two lowest-ranked, automatic qualifying teams as determined by the Division I National Committee, regardless of conference RPI, will compete in a preliminary game to determine the final AQ spot in the championship bracket. The winner will play the top overall seed.

The ACC is the only conference that does not have an automatic qualifier because it has five members. They will be limited to only at-large bids.

The remaining eight bids are at-large teams, those that do not win their conference tournaments or come from the ACC.

Are there any teams ineligible for the tournament?

There's three ineligible teams, all because of reclassification:

• Merrimack (America East, 4th and final year of their reclassification process)

• Lindenwood (ASUN, 1st year of their reclassification process)

• Queens (ASUN, 1st year of their reclassification process)

If moving from Division II to Division I, it takes four years to become a full Division I member. During this time, schools are ineligible to participate in NCAA tournaments. Depending on the conference the school is in, they could participate in postseason tournaments.

Hartford, technically a Division I school this year before reclassifying to Division III, is playing six games this year, all against Division III schools.

How is the selection criteria for the at-large teams?

I always drop this prior to the bracket prediction. Directly from the Pre-Championship manual:

• Eligibility and availability of student-athletes for NCAA championship

• Win-loss record (must be at least .500 and have played at least 10 games against Division I opponents)

• Strength-of-schedule index.

• Results of the RPI:

• Record against ranked teams 1-5; 6-10; 11-15; 16-20; 21+

• Average RPI win (average RPI of all wins)

• Average RPI loss (average RPI of all losses)

• Head-to-head competition:

• Results versus common opponents

• Significant wins and losses (wins against teams ranked higher in the RPI and losses against teams ranked lower in the RPI)

• Locations of contests

Additionally, input is provided by the regional advisory committee for consideration by the Division I Men’s Lacrosse Committee. Coaches’ polls and/or any other outside polls or rankings are not used by the committee for selection purposes.

What is the RPI and how is it calculated?

The Rating Percentage Index (RPI) originally was created in the late seventies at the request of the Division I Men’s Basketball Committee.

The basic factors of the RPI and their weighting are the same for every sport:

1. Division I Winning Percentage – 25%

2. Strength of Schedule – 50%

3. Opponents’ Strength of Schedule – 25%

Non-Division I opposition includes Division I provisional or reclassifying schools in their exploratory or first year as they transition to full Division I status. These teams may petition to be included in the RPI in year one, provided their schedule meets Division I minimums.

The NCAA doesn't release their official RPI rankings until late March/early April. I highly suggest you don't calculate the RPI on your own. Instead, Lacrosse Reference and Lax Math are good sources to find RPI. Both also have the strength of schedule metrics.

How is the bracket formed?

Once the group of 17 teams are chosen, the Division I National Committee will seed eight teams. Once those eight teams are seeded, the remaining teams will be placed geographically to create the least number of flights, while also maintaining bracket integrity, and separating conference opponents during first-round competition. Those decisions are announced on Selection Sunday, which is May 7 this year.

The magic number is 400. Division I teams located within 400 miles of their competition site are required to use ground transportation. Teams located outside 400 miles may use air transportation.

Who are on the committees?

Five people are on the National Committee:

• Brandon Macneill, Denver Deputy Director of Athletics and Chief Revenue Officer (Chair)

• Joe Breschi, North Carolina head coach

• Randy Mearns, St. Bonaventure head coach

• Matthew Colagiovanni, Rutgers Senior Associate Director of Athletics

• Jordan Skolnick, Delaware Deputy Director of Athletics

As for the regional advisory committee, each conference is represented:

• Conner Buczek, Cornell head coach (Ivy)

• Greg Cannella, UMass head coach (A-10)

• Kevin Corrigan, Notre Dame head coach (ACC)

• Scott Marr, UAlbany head coach (America East)

• Mason Poli, Quinnipiac head coach (MAAC)

• Ryan Polley, Boston University head coach (Patriot)

• Ken Taylor, Monmouth Associate Athletic Director for Development & Blue/White Club (CAA)

• Justin Turri, St. John’s head coach (Big East)

• Andy Whitely, Bellarmine head coach (ASUN)

• TBD representative from the Big Ten

Will the committee release rankings prior to Selection Sunday?

The committee is planning to release two top 10 rankings once again. One of them will happen three weeks before Selection Sunday, the other will happen two weeks before Selection Sunday.

Hopefully all of that helped in some way or another. Now to some early data.

Data Primer

It won't be a full breakdown just yet, but we'll give you a peak at the RPI and SOS metrics.

Notables: Boston University (21), North Carolina (22), Georgetown (26), Princeton (27), Harvard (30), Army West Point (32)

Notables: Michigan (30), Harvard (31), Jacksonville (34), Rutgers (35), Delaware (37), Boston University (40), Dartmouth (46), Army West Point (58)

Even though I'm personally low of them in my Media Poll ballots, Yale has the best metrics in the country. Their lone loss was to Penn State. Virginia's RPI is at 5 and their SOS is at 15. Dartmouth's 9th-best RPI definitely catches your eye even though having the 46th-toughest schedule. Finally, Maryland's RPI is only at 13 despite losses to Notre Dame (2) and Loyola (9).

So who's the at-large group?

It shouldn't be a shock that the ACC, Big Ten, and Ivy League should make up the majority of the at-large bids, if not all of them. Depending on what happens in the Big East and/or Patriot League, those two conferences might make a run at also being multi-bidders.

Here's the generous list of 19 teams I think we will focus on for the next few weeks:

• Army West Point (Patriot League)

• Boston University (Patriot League)

• Cornell (Ivy League)

• Duke (ACC)

• Georgetown (Big East)

• Jacksonville (ASUN)

• Johns Hopkins (Big Ten)

• Loyola (Patriot League)

• Maryland (Big Ten)

• North Carolina (ACC)

• Notre Dame (ACC)

• Ohio State (Big Ten)

• Penn (Ivy League)

• Penn State (Big Ten)

• Princeton (Ivy League)

• Rutgers (Big Ten)

• Villanova (Big East)

• Virginia (ACC)

• Yale (Ivy League)

Some of them are closer to reaching "AQ or bust" territory than others. BU, Georgetown, Jacksonville, and Princeton are definitely very close to that area if they're not there yet. Penn might be close, maybe North Carolina and Ohio State too? That's probably bubble range right there.

We'll see what occurs next weekend and the weeks that follow. Virginia, Notre Dame, and Maryland are by far the three best teams in the country. But after them, it's a crapshoot.